Global Risks 2014


  • Environmental risks feature prominently in this year’s list, with failure of climate change mitigation and adaption in fifth place. The World Bank estimates the cost of climate change adaptation for developing countries to be $70-100 billion per year through to 2050.
  • Studies suggest that water scarcity – third on the list of global risks – could reduce grain production by as much as 30%. Food crises are number eight on the list..
  • Youth unemployment and underemployment are ranked as the second most important risk. About 300 million young people – over 25% of the world’s youth population – have no productive work, according to World Bank estimates. Add low-paid rural and urban self-employed workers, and the estimates rise to 600 million.
  • Demographic trends are flagged in the report, including the risk of being unable to deal with rapid population growth and the growing burden of an ageing population. While it took 115 years for France’s population of over-65s to double from 7% to 14%, it will take China, South Korea and Singapore about 20 years.
  • More than half of the world’s population now lives in cities. By 2050, the urban population will have nearly doubled to an estimated 6.4 billion. This trend increases the impact of risks including the spread of disease, natural disasters and income inequality.
  • If a new strain of avian flu were to spread globally through the air travel network that connects the world’s major cities, 3 billion people could potentially be exposed to the virus within a short span of time.
  • The number of people aged 20-79 with diabetes is projected to rise to 591.9 million by 2035 (compared to 381.8 million in 2013).
  • The decline of trust in institutions, lack of leadership, persisting gender inequalities and data mismanagement are trends to watch, according to survey respondents.
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